Publication Date

2026

Document Type

Dissertation/Thesis

First Advisor

Thurber, Ches

Degree Name

M.A. (Master of Arts)

Legacy Department

Department of Political Science

Abstract

This study examines the factors shaping state responsiveness to U.S. nuclear counterproliferation efforts by building on Posture Optimization Theory (POT) and introducing Counterproliferation Responsiveness Theory (CRT). CRT proposes that nuclear posture conditions how states respond to external counterproliferation pressure by generating distinct operational consequences, particularly differences in operational visibility, strategic autonomy, and escalation requirements. These operational characteristics shape the political and strategic costs associated with resisting coercive pressure. This study employs a comparative, theory-driven process-tracing methodology to examine the cases of India and Taiwan, drawing on declassified U.S. government documents and complementary secondary literature. Evidence tables were constructed to map hypothesized causal mechanisms to observable implications, and process-tracing tests were applied to systematically assess the presence and strength of predicted relationships. The findings provide asymmetric but conditional support for the hypotheses. In India, an assured retaliation posture corresponded with low sensitivity to U.S. counterproliferation pressure, consistent with expectations that survivable second-strike strategies provide high strategic autonomy and limited operational exposure. However, causal inference remains limited due to the absence of definitive smoking-gun evidence. In Taiwan, an asymmetric escalation posture coincided with heightened responsiveness to U.S. pressure, reflecting vulnerabilities associated with greater operational visibility, alliance dependence, and escalation risks. While these observations provide comparatively stronger support for CRT, they also fall short of definitive causal confirmation. Across both cases, cumulative process-tracing evidence suggests that nuclear posture can shape patterns of compliance or resistance to counterproliferation pressure, even as alternative explanations rooted in structural realism, domestic politics, and normative commitments remain relevant. Overall, CRT offers a framework for understanding why counterproliferation efforts succeed in some contexts and fail in others by linking nuclear strategy to the mechanisms that condition state responsiveness to external coercion.

Extent

77 pages

Language

en

Publisher

Northern Illinois University

Rights Statement

In Copyright

Rights Statement 2

NIU theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from Huskie Commons for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without the written permission of the authors.

Media Type

Text

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