Publication Date

Spring 5-6-2026

Document Type

Student Project

First Advisor

Virginia Wilcox

Degree Name

B.S. (Bachelor of Science)

Department

Department of Economics

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between climate variability and agricultural production in California, focusing on major specialty crops including almonds, walnuts, pistachios, and grapes. Using annual data from 1993 to 2023, the analysis evaluates how temperature and precipitation influence agricultural output while controlling for differences across crop types. The study employs ordinary least squares regression models using the natural logarithm of crop production as the dependent variable. In addition to a baseline linear specification, an extended nonlinear model including squared temperature and precipitation terms is estimated to test for potential nonlinear climate effects.

The results indicate that temperature has a positive and statistically significant effect on agricultural production in the baseline model, while precipitation has a weak negative relationship with output. However, the nonlinear model provides no strong evidence of significant nonlinear climate effects. The findings suggest that moderate climate variability may influence agricultural production, although the estimated effects are sensitive to model specification. Overall, the study highlights the complexity of climate impacts on agriculture and emphasizes the importance of continued investment in climate adaptation and water management strategies in California agriculture.

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