Creation and Evaluation of the Illinois Cancer Risk Index as A Predictor of Four Common Cancers

Authors

Lei Guo, Northern Illinois UniversityFollow
Margaret E. Wright, University of Illinois Chicago
Meridith C. Osias, Northern Illinois University
Mahdi Vaezi, Northern Illinois UniversityFollow
M. Courtney HughesFollow

Author ORCID Identifier

Lei Guo: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2055-7618

Margaret E. Wright: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4410-4157

Mahdi Vaezi: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8649-1573

M. Courtney Hughes: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8699-5701

Document Type

Article

Publication Title

Preventing Chronic Disease

Abstract

Introduction

Nearly half of all cancer deaths in the US are attributed to 4 common cancers: lung, colorectal, breast, and prostate. Illinois residents experience higher rates of cancer death from all 4 cancers compared with the US overall. We developed the Illinois Cancer Risk Index (ICRI), which incorporates many predictors of these cancers into a single summary measure, to identify Illinois counties that would benefit most from public health intervention.

Methods

We identified 90 county-level predictors of 4 common cancers, used multicollinearity testing to reduce this number to 61, and applied factor analysis to extract and analyze 4 factors representing 25 variables. Next, we created the ICRI by regressing the 4 factors on our outcome of interest — an age-adjusted common cancers mortality rate (CCMR), incorporating the direction of the β-coefficients from regression models to sum factor scores. Finally, we mapped and assessed the geographic distributions of both ICRI and CCMR by county across the state.

Results

The ICRI was positively associated with the CCMR (r = 0.59, P < .001) and explained 32.2% of the variance in the CCMR across Illinois. The ICRI showed distinct geospatial patterns across the state, with the highest risk counties located in the east–central, far northern, and southern regions. The CCMR showed similar geospatial patterns.

Conclusion

Our study identifies counties in Illinois that may benefit most from interventions that target multiple cancer risk factors simultaneously. The ICRI may be adapted for use in other geographic locations where data are available.

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.5888/pcd19.220104

Publication Date

2022

Recommended Citation

Guo L, Wright ME, Vaezi M, Osias MC, Hughes MC. Creation and Evaluation of the Illinois Cancer Risk Index as A Predictor of Four Common Cancers. Preventing Chronic Disease. 2022. Vol 19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5888/pcd19.220104

Original Citation

Guo L, Wright ME, Vaezi M, Osias MC, Hughes MC. Creation and Evaluation of the Illinois Cancer Risk Index as A Predictor of Four Common Cancers. Preventing Chronic Disease. 2022. Vol 19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5888/pcd19.220104

Department

School of Health Studies| Department of Engineering Technology

Sponsorship

This study is supported by an Illinois Innovation Network Seed Grant.