Publication Date


Document Type


First Advisor

Catalanello, Ralph F.

Degree Name

M.S. (Master of Science)

Legacy Department

Department of Management


Human capital; Personnel management


The purpose of this study was to develop and test the effec­tiveness of Markov analysis for forecasting and planning a large Division of a major U.S. corporation's human resources. The sample used in the study included 182 managers, supervisors and professional personnel in the Division's technical work areas between June 1, 1974 and June 1, 1979. The analysis was accomplished by collecting and coding a five year biographical history on each employee, and then running three-way crosstabulations of key variables in order to generate transition matrices for successive time periods covered by the data. After transition probability matrices were calculated, the model was tested for its ability to accurately illustrate the movement of personnel, by utilizing a modified chi-square test in order to evaluate the constancy of the transition probability matrices over time. The Markov model was then applied to forecasting the Division's future technical human resource requirements and toward Understanding the nature of past career processes. The results of this study found that Markov analysis could be effectively applied to forecasting and planning the Division's technical personnel. There was consistency in the transition matrices over time, and as a result, they were applied to forecasting the Division's future human resource needs between 1979 and 1984. It was determined that the Division would have a constant demand in the ENLT=> of general management and supervisory personnel, while there would be substantial increase in the demand for technical professionals. In analyzing past career processes, it was found that the Division maintained a relatively constant distribution of personnel over the time periods covered by the data. It was also discovered that very little interfunctional mobility and promotional opportunity existed, which may have been part of the reason why the Division had experi­enced high turnover in some positions in the technical workforce. There were two specific recommendations rendered from this study. One suggested that the Division should develop effective long term recruitment programs based on future human resource forecasts. Methods that were suggested included selective advertisement programs, college relations and recruitment efforts, and cooperative education programs. The second recommendation emphasized the need for the Division to improve its personnel policies and practices regarding career development. It was suggested that the Division increase the opportunity for interfunctional movement and promotions, and put more emphasis on developing and utilizing available human resources. Finally, the study mentioned that improving the career process may help reduce the Division's turnover rate.


Includes bibliographical references.


viii, 91 pages




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