Gensini, Vittorio A.
M.S. (Master of Science)
Department of Geographic and Atmospheric Sciences
This thesis investigates the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on hail frequency and intensity, which poses a significant threat to life and property, accounting for annual insured losses of around $30 billion in the U.S. This approach uses convection-allowing dynamically-downscaled regional climate simulations using input data from NCAR's bias-corrected Community Earth System Model to simulate historical and projected future climate regimes under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. A column maximum diameter hail diagnostic is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model to identify instances of hail days and size to quantify changes in large hail frequency and location. Results reveal that elevated greenhouse gas concentrations cause a significant increase in large hail days in broad areas of the Midwest and Eastern U.S., while maximum hail size distribution profiles in other areas undergo negligible changes. Cumulative hail day counts indicate that the Southern Plains has the potential to experience a robust decrease in large hail days during summer, indicating more complex climate change responses in this region. Overall, almost all other U.S. regions exhibit an increase in cumulative severe and larger hail day counts on a seasonal basis, with the exception of the Southern Plains during boreal fall.
Goodin, Jillian Rose, "Convection Allowing Simulations of Hail in Historical and Future Climate Epochs" (2023). Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations. 7146.
Northern Illinois University
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