Publication Date

1989

Document Type

Dissertation/Thesis

First Advisor

Reitan, Clayton Harold

Degree Name

M.S. (Master of Science)

Legacy Department

Department of Geography

LCSH

Atmospheric temperature; Weather forecasting; Rossby waves; Synoptic climatology

Abstract

This study involved the analysis of the synoptic climatology of planetary wave flow relevant to the prediction of January surface temperature. Three statistical models were developed (Correlation, Anomalous Flow and Regression model) to aid in the understanding of how mid-tropospheric flow relates to surface air temperature. Linear steady state primitive equation models, such as the models of J. D. Opsteegh and H. M. Van den Dool described in 1980, predict patterns of geopotential height anomalies for very cold versus warm Januaries in the eastern half of the United States. These theoretical prediction models show that the Pacific North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) is the common pattern for height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere for below normal Januaries. Test results from this study were consistent with the hypothetical height anomaly pattern of theoretical prediction models. A study was conducted to determine what determines the pattern of geopotential height anomalies for a given January. Specification equations were developed using a stepwise regression model. Test results from the Regression model determined that below normal Januaries are forecast with greater accuracy than above normal Januaries. A series of diagnostic test models was developed to search for reasons why colder than normal Januaries have greater forecast accuracy than above normal Januaries. The results from the statistical models yielded useful predictors which can be utilized in long-range temperature prediction for the eastern half of the United States.

Comments

Includes bibliographical references (pages 373-377)

Extent

xxx, 383 pages

Language

eng

Publisher

Northern Illinois University

Rights Statement

In Copyright

Rights Statement 2

NIU theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from Huskie Commons for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without the written permission of the authors.

Media Type

Text

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