Petersen, Ralph Allen
M.S. (Master of Science)
Department of Geography
Cyclones; Storms; Jet stream; Weather forecasting
A simple numerical model in isentropic coordinates is developed to predict stability change and moisture transport associated with severe weather outbreaks. Data from 23 April 1968 are used to test the models ability to preserve detail throughout the forecast period and to assess the accuracy of the model. In regions where the atmosphere is found to be conducive to severe weather development, thunderstorm occurrences were verified using existing satellite pictures and observed storm damage reports. The results indicate that the model forecast destabilization ahead of the jet stream as it moved eastward. This forecast was well related to observed occurrence of severe weather. Moisture transport predicted by the model in the low levels was also found to resemble typical patterns in a mid-latitude cyclone.
Lawyer, David T., "A simple model to predict static stability change in relation to severe weather outbreaks" (1982). Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations. 555.
vi, 61 pages
Northern Illinois University
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