Green, Gerald G.
M.B.A. (Master of Business Administration)
Department of Management
Sulphuric acid industry; Economic forecasting
The purpose of this investigation was to determine If the consumption of sulphuric acid could be used as a tool for forecasting the industrial needs for any one industry on a short range basis. The study investigation was based on four of the major industrial complexes vital to the economy, and assumed that any other industry could infer its own planning techniques from the values presented in the four pilot industries. Those industries studied in detail included the basic complexes of petroleum and refinery operations, primary metals, rubber, and the paper and wood pulp manufacturers. A brief study of each of the four pilot industries was made to assure the Investigator that sulphuric acid was a necessary ingredient in the manufacture or operation of the industrial concern studied. Library research assured that sulphuric acid was indeed a basic need, in most industrial complexes, and could therefore be correlated with the production of other industries. Every modern manager will find himself faced with the task of forecasting his manufacturing needs for the short range period. The investigation hoped to show that sulphuric acid consumption could provide another forecasting tool for that purpose. It was found that the production of sulphuric acid did not seem to correspond to the industrial production for three of the four pilot industries—-those of petroleum and refinery operations, rubber, and paper and wood pulp operations--in any sufficient manner to be able to use that correlation for forecasting on the short term basis, nor did the production trends show enough evidence of any lead or lag time with those production trends of sulphuric acid to be of any real benefit to the forecaster. It appeared that the ability to predict manufacturing trends for those industries on the short range basis could not be based on the production of sulphuric acid. However, consumption of sulphuric acid showed, a possible prediction value in the primary metals industry, and short range forecasting may be a possibility. Further study into the individual industry of concern to the manager was recommended to assure the manager that his own industrial concern followed the trend of the pilot study. It was suggested that outside factors such as employment strikes, raw material delays, and similar factors may have influenced production during the period studied in the report, and could therefore have thrown the correlation study to extremes. It would seem advisable to study the entire history of the industry in question before making any forecast based on the consumption of sulphuric acid as one of the tools for the forecast.
Justus, George L., "Sulphuric acid consumption as a tool for short range economic forecasting" (1971). Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations. 5138.
Northern Illinois University
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