Document Type

Article

Media Type

Text

Abstract

Meteorologists who work in the energy commodities market continue to investigate ways to enhance predictions of seasonal temperature anomalies using oceanic/atmospheric indices. This study examines the relationship of three climate indices – ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), PNA (Pacific North American) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) – to heating degree day (HDD) totals accumulated in 11 cities in the Midwest and northeastern United States, to determine which, if any, has predictive power. The data covers the 48-year period between 1951/52 and 1998/99, and focuses on two periods either side of 1 January (i.e. the winter months of October–December and January–April). The index most strongly related to the HDD anomalies during both winter periods was NAO. NAO values were negative for cold (above-average HDD) anomalies occurring prior to and after 1 January, while the NAO values were generally positive during warm (below-average HDD) anomalies. During cold anomalies, the PNA values were generally positive in the three months before 1 January and negative afterwards, indicating that different atmospheric teleconnection patterns cause similar temperature anomalies in these regions. The relationship between the equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SST) data and temperature anomalies was the weakest. Confidence in these relationships increased when the extreme HDD anomaly years were examined. These results indicated that the relationships of climate indices to HDD anomalies exist and that these would be useful in developing and improving seasonal predictions for business applications.

Publication Date

1-1-2002

Comments

D0 Collaboration

Department

Department of Geography

ISSN

1350-4827

Language

eng

Publisher

Royal Meteorological Society

Share

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.