Publication Date

2023

Document Type

Dissertation/Thesis

First Advisor

Gensini, Vittorio A.

Degree Name

M.S. (Master of Science)

Legacy Department

Department of Geographic and Atmospheric Sciences

Abstract

This thesis investigates the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on hail frequency and intensity, which poses a significant threat to life and property, accounting for annual insured losses of around $30 billion in the U.S. This approach uses convection-allowing dynamically-downscaled regional climate simulations using input data from NCAR's bias-corrected Community Earth System Model to simulate historical and projected future climate regimes under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. A column maximum diameter hail diagnostic is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model to identify instances of hail days and size to quantify changes in large hail frequency and location. Results reveal that elevated greenhouse gas concentrations cause a significant increase in large hail days in broad areas of the Midwest and Eastern U.S., while maximum hail size distribution profiles in other areas undergo negligible changes. Cumulative hail day counts indicate that the Southern Plains has the potential to experience a robust decrease in large hail days during summer, indicating more complex climate change responses in this region. Overall, almost all other U.S. regions exhibit an increase in cumulative severe and larger hail day counts on a seasonal basis, with the exception of the Southern Plains during boreal fall.

Extent

66 pages

Language

eng

Publisher

Northern Illinois University

Rights Statement

In Copyright

Rights Statement 2

NIU theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from Huskie Commons for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without the written permission of the authors.

Media Type

Text

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